# Calculate unconditional probability of dying
# Author: Ivo Rakovac (rakovaci at who dot int), 
#         WHO Regional Office for Europe,
#         Division of Noncommunicable Diseases and Promoting Health through the Life-course,
#         WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases (NCD Office)

# unconditional probabilty of dying between ages 30 and 69 years

probabilityOfDying30_69 <- function(d,p)
{
  m<-d/p 
  q<-m*5/(1+m*2.5)
  q[8]
  res<-100*(1-(1-q[8])*(1-q[9])*(1-q[10])*(1-q[11])*(1-q[12])*(1-q[13])*(1-q[14])*(1-q[15]))
  res
  return(res)
}

# probabilty of dying between arbitrary 5 years age groups

probabilityOfDying <- function(d.short,p.short)
{
  m<-d.short/p.short 
  q<-m*5/(1+m*2.5)
  
  prod<-1;
  for( i in c(1:length(q))){
    prod<-prod*(1-q[i])
    
  }
  res<-100*(1-prod(1-q))
  res<-100*(1-prod)
  res
  return(res)
}


# test data

d <- array(c(1,10,14,13,24,33, 45, 86, 142, 344, 727, 1368, 1994, 2959, 4291, 6605, 6635, 10070, 24678), dim=c(19,1))

d.short <- array(c(86, 142, 344, 727, 1368, 1994, 2959, 4291), dim=c(8,1))


p <- array(c(79828, 322939, 403965, 415089, 464268, 545917, 565035, 577713, 544966, 618886, 709478, 682921, 569842, 471089, 422748, 437151, 283721, 216284, 212092),dim=c(19,1))

p.short <- array(c(577713, 544966, 618886, 709478, 682921, 569842, 471089, 422748),dim=c(8,1))



d
p

# Example use

probabilityOfDying30_69(d,p)

probabilityOfDying(d.short,p.short)