Tools to calculate unconditional probability of dying

Unconditional probability of dying between the ages of 30 and 69 years is the probability that a person aged 30 years will die from selected causes of death before reaching the age of 70 years, assuming that current age and cause-specific mortality patterns remain unchanged. Indicator definition and specifications are given in the Global Monitoring Framework for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases (GMF).[1]

Unconditional probability of premature mortality from four major noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), namely cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic lower respiratory disease, is a key indicator in both the GMF and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It is a relatively new indicator that has not yet been used widely in other frameworks and indicator sets, however, and knowledge of to calculate it is lacking.

The WHO European Office for the Prevention and Control of NCDs (NCD Office) has therefore developed practical calculation tools for the indicator to share with the NCD surveillance community. The following tools are available to calculate the unconditional probability of dying:

1)      Excel sheet: ProbabilityOfDying.xlsx

2)      SQL function: ProbabilityOfDyingSQLFunction.sql

3)      R function: ProbabilityOfDying.R


This work was made possible by funding from the Government of the Russian Federation within the context of the NCD Office.

[1] Noncommunicable diseases Global Monitoring Framework: indicator definitions and specifications. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2014 ( , accessed 1 August 2017).