Tools to
calculate unconditional probability of dying

Unconditional
probability of dying between the ages of 30 and 69 years is the probability
that a person aged 30 years will die from selected causes of death before
reaching the age of 70 years, assuming that current age and cause-specific
mortality patterns remain unchanged. Indicator definition and specifications
are given in the Global Monitoring Framework for the prevention and control of noncommunicable
diseases (GMF).[1]

Unconditional
probability of premature mortality from four major noncommunicable diseases (NCDs),
namely cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic lower respiratory
disease, is a key indicator in both the GMF and the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs). It is a relatively new indicator that has not yet been used
widely in other frameworks and indicator sets, however, and knowledge of to
calculate it is lacking.

The WHO
European Office for the Prevention and Control of NCDs (NCD Office) has
therefore developed practical calculation tools for the indicator to share with
the NCD surveillance community. The following tools are available to calculate
the unconditional probability of dying:

1)
Excel
sheet: ProbabilityOfDying.xlsx

2)
SQL
function: ProbabilityOfDyingSQLFunction.sql

3)
R
function: ProbabilityOfDying.R

This work
was made possible by funding from the Government of the Russian Federation
within the context of the NCD Office.

[1] Noncommunicable diseases Global Monitoring Framework:
indicator definitions and specifications. Geneva: World Health Organization;
2014 (http://www.who.int/nmh/ncd-tools/indicators-definition/en/ , accessed 1 August 2017).